Michael Keaton and Bradley Cooper are the only nominees who belong here. Right now I'm mostly just thankful that Steve Carell's aristocratic burlesque act in Foxcatcher and Benedict Cumberbatch's embarrassing attempt to turn Alan Turing into a Funny Asperger's Bot/asexual gay martyr in The Imitation Game are being counted out of most Best Actor polls. Cooper's internalized work in American Sniper is a more deserving dark horse, with the actor's eyes showing internalized, suppressed self-doubt and inner conflict even as his body expresses utmost confidence in everything he believes about the war. The Golden Globes went to Keaton and Eddie Redmayne, the latter of whom seems to be getting the edge if the SAG win is any indication. It'd be an eye-roller, a reward for a physical transformation that's half makeup and half automatic, with Redmayne doing little to distinguish himself from any other actor who might have been cast. Keaton's live wire burnout performance in Birdman is my favorite of the bunch, and with the Oscars seemingly rolling that way for several of the major awards, I'm going to cross my fingers and predict that he'll ride the Birdman wave to the one win I think the film deserves.
A much better lineup than Best Actor, with only Felicity Jones' fine but unexceptional work in The Theory of Everything earning a big shrug. I'd be happy with any of the other four, from Reese Witherspoon's prickly work in Wild to Julianne Moore's elevation of disease-of-the-week material in Still Alice. I'd be happier with either Rosamund Pike's breakthrough role as the enigmatic, chilly Amy in Gone Girl, the shrewdness of which (she has to project naïveté and vulnerability to other characters and intelligence and calculation to the audience while still hiding her thought process from both) has only grown in my memory. Cotillard would be my ideal: she manifests her character's depression physically, letting us see the weight of the world practically crushing her, without ever making it seem like an actorly stunt, and her win for Two Days, One Night would double as a win for The Immigrant. But I won't complain too much when Moore finally picks up her Oscar, even if she should've won for Safe/Boogie Nights/Far From Heaven/other.
Best Supporting Actor
Duvall's the only head-scratcher here, turning in solid work that simply doesn't rank in the top twenty or so performances of his career. Better still: Ruffalo, giving the quietest, most complicated performance in Foxcatcher, and Edward Norton, who might have the most difficult job given that his character A. is, as written, a tired method acting caricature, which he enlivens and makes the funniest part of the film, and B. is given the film's dumbest monologue (the "eyeballs" line), which he delivers with an emotional directness and sincerity that makes it go down easily. I'd almost go with Hawke's work, given how fun it is to see him grow as an actor/person and play a man who's at once a cool father figure and kind of a cad. But I'll happily sign on to the favorite/slam dunk winner J.K. Simmons, who takes a potentially one-note monster and makes him a vivid and mesmerizing manipulator of emotions/drill sergeant/oh what the hell he's a fun monster, shut up.
Best Supporting Actress
*sigh* Streep's back. I wish they'd stop nominating her every time she coughed, given that she's been doing the same hammy star-turn bullshit since The Devil Wears Prada (save Fantastic Mr. Fox), where we're ostensibly seeing an actress disappear into a role but we're really seeing Meryl Streep, Great Actress™. She's less annoying than usual in Into the Woods, but she kills several jokes in "Witch's Rap" and never approaches Bernadette Peters' sublime mix of theatricality and emotional directness. As per usual, it's all about the dancer, not the dance, and I'm getting mighty tired of seeing the dancer drawing attention to her own virtuosity. Streep needs a real director, so her latest film with Jonathan Demme can't come soon enough.
OK, that rant is done, so here's the rest: like Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything, Keira Knightley is fine in The Imitation Game, but she's given a role that doesn't require her to do more than stand there, look supportive and occasionally launch into monologues. I didn't like Begin Again but she's at least allowed to be more present and display her unique warmth; this is another role that any number of actresses could have done. Laura Dern's nomination for Wild arguably falls into that territory, but Dern's vivaciousness does make an impression in her limited screentime; it could have been anyone in the role, arguably, but I'm glad it was her. Emma Stone has Birdman's single best moment, immediately after her Oscar clip "you don't matter" speech, in which a mixture of "I'm glad I got that off my chest" and "I've deeply hurt someone I care about" comes over her face. It's a great moment, and she's the only one I'd accept as an alternate to the best nominee (and likely winner), Patricia Arquette. Like Hawke, she grows as an actress and a person in the role in a way that few are given the opportunity to do. But she's given the richer character, a woman who's at once supportive and sometimes impatient, someone who's trying her best for her kids while making sometimes catastrophic decisions for herself, and someone whose final scene wrecked me more than just about any other this year.
Best Original Screenplay
Glad that Nightcrawler is here, less happy that Foxcatcher is here, but neither will win. Boyhood seems to be giving off the impression of being more of a director's movie than a writer's movie (I don't know, writing scenes that credibly build off of and expand stuff that you shot a year or ten ago seems like a pretty big task to me). Birdman's screenplay is the worst thing about the film, a collection of musty showbiz/artist observations and insecurities made palatable by great performances and bravura direction. It's a load of bullshit that gets elevated to the level of entertaining bullshit. Many think a Birdman sweep seems to be in order, but I think this is where they'll reward Wes Anderson and The Grand Budapest Hotel (it falls in line with Spike Jonze's win for Her last year). Anderson's work is the best of the bunch, a nesting doll of a script that works as a great chase movie while smuggling in a moving statement about the perils and pleasures of nostalgia.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Well, I'd love to bang a gong for Paul Thomas Anderson finally getting his due for his skillful adaptation of Inherent Vice (no small feat, given the density of the text), but it ain't happening. The three real-life movies will hopefully cancel each other out – I don't mind American Sniper's script so much, but The Theory of Everything is biopic-by-numbers while The Imitation Game insists on Alan Turing's greatness and his status as a martyr without ever actually making people thing about his achievements or his sexuality in a palpable way (i.e., him actually having sex with men). Whiplash's nomination is total category fraud, but seeing as it's a better alternative/more of a writer's movie than any of the above films, I'll bet on that.
Best Animated Film
With The Lego Movie left out there's no obvious favorite aside from "not The Boxtrolls" (didn't see it, not commenting on it, but no one seems to favor it over the others). I could see either of the American studio movies getting it, though I'm scratching my head as to how How to Train Your Dragon 2 became an apparent front-runner. But I could also see a surprise with one of the foreign imports, with my heart going to Isao Takahata's lovely, subtly devastating The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. I'm going to be safe and go with How to Train Your Dragon 2.
Best Foreign Film
I don't have a horse in this race: Two Days, One Night didn't make the shortlist. I'm only sort of in favor of Ida, didn't catch up with Leviathan, Wild Tales or Timbuktu yet. Betting on Ida.
Best Documentary Feature
Life Itself didn't make it, so it'll be Citizenfour. OK.
Best Original Score
Hans Zimmer (Interstellar) has won and Gary Yershon (Mr. Turner) wrote the (great) score to the movie seen by the fewest people, so they're both out. It's really a race between Desplat and Johansson, with the only question being whether Desplat cancels himself out with two nominations. It'd be a joke if he won for his solid work in The Imitation Game instead of his career-best work in The Grand Budapest Hotel, but it'd be an even bigger joke if Johannsson's middlebrow-de-rigeur score won for The Theory of Everything. That could easily happen, given that it won the Golden Globe and other awards (somehow), but I'll be stupid and go with my heart: Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Best Original Song
I can't see them going for "Lost Stars" (one of the many songs from Begin Again that posits a Lisa Loeb soundalike as the savior of modern music)or "Grateful" (Beyond the Lights). I'm one of those folks who found "Everything Is Awesome" ungodly annoying, so I'd rather not see The Lego Movie pick up the sympathy vote. A more understandable pick would be "I'm Not Gonna Miss You," about Glen Campbell's battle with Alzheimer's, but I can't really see them going with anything other than "Glory," given the backlash it'd inspire if Selma got nothing. It'll be nice to see Common get an Oscar.
Best Sound Editing/Mixing
I'm betting on American Sniper getting both of these; it'd be weird to see it get shut out after getting so much love from the Academy nomination morning. Birdman or Interstellar could potentially get one or both, and I could see Whiplash (deservingly) getting mixing, but right now I'm betting on them throwing something to Clint and company for Sound Editing and Whiplash for Mixing.
Best Production/Costume Design
Wes Anderson's films should win these awards every year they're eligible, so it'll be nice to see them finally, you know, win them in real life rather than my fantasy Oscars. It'll be a rare case of the Academy's tendency to give things to the most designs actually lining up with the best.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
It's the one place I could see Foxcatcher winning something; if it were just for Mark Ruffalo's hairline, I wouldn't mind, but Steve Carell's nose is a needless distraction, epitomizing everything about that performance that's just a step too much. The Grand Budapest Hotel could conceivably win here, but the nose thing is the most Oscar-y bit of makeup, so I'm betting on Foxcatcher.
Best Visual Effects
None of the superhero movies belong here. It's between Interstellar and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, with my preference/prediction going slightly toward the former. Also: why in the hell is Godzilla not here?
Boyhood cut together twelve years' worth of footage, and much of its power comes from its juxtapositions (Mason exiting a room, cut to a year later where his mother and new stepfather arrive at their new home). I could see the Academy maybe favoring the flashier (but still great) work in Whiplash or the precise action editing in American Sniper, but I'm betting on Boyhood. Also: how in the high holy hell did The Imitation Game get here? It features some of the dumbest editing of the year, from the cross-cutting between documentary footage and bad CGI to an edit that takes us from a torpedo slamming into a boat to a man putting a cigarette out. Yes, very clever, Mr. Editor, you really had your Lawrence of Arabia moment there.
I'd be so on board with Robert Yeoman finally getting something after years of doing great work with Wes Anderson; his use of three different aspect ratios was more than a trick, establishing an emotional connection (at least among nostalgic film aficionados, no small point in a film about nostalgia) to previous eras. I wouldn't mind Ida or Mr. Turner picking something up, either. Less wonderful: Roger Deakins, doing fine work on Unbroken but some of his least distinctive work (that said, I don't think he'll the makeup Oscar for this if he didn't get it for Skyfall). It'll probably be a repeat win for Lubezki, though, given that the one-take conceit that Birdman employs is bound to wow people. I think it's as banal as Lubezki's images have ever looked, but it achieves the sense of claustrophobia and restlessness that he and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu are going for, and its framing of the actors does enhance their psychological states, so it's hardly bad work, just less exciting than usual.
I never know what's going on in these categories, so I'm just picking the ones that seem baity (Live Action Short: The Phone Call, featuring Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent), have been lobbied about as being baity (Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1), or are by Pixar (Best Animated Short: Feast).
Bennett Miller's nominated for Best Director without Foxcatcher being nominated for Best Director, so it's safe to assume he's out. I'm not complaining; I admire Miller's craftsmanship but think that his direction of Steve Carell to take as many pauses and suck the air out of the room as possible is overkill when his style already values long pauses and sucking the air out of the room. Still, he's far more welcome than Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game), nominated for pointing the camera in the general direction of the actors. Wes Anderson would get my vote, both for his continued representation of Michael Powell's ideal "composed film" and as a validation for nearly two decades of uncompromising, fiercely idiosyncratic work. The same could go for Richard Linklater, a more likely candidate for his deeply empathetic, quietly powerful direction of Boyhood, but it has a big competitor in Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu.
I liked Birdman more than any of AGI's films since his debut Amores Perros, and if nothing else, his direction gets some lovely, lyrical moments, like Keaton's flight over New York, and it successfully immerses us in Keaton's (and, by proxy, Inarritu's) personal and professional insecurities. But it's still a bit too sledgehammer-y for my taste. AGI won the Director's Guild Award, which usually lines up with the Best Director winner (the last diversion was when Ang Lee won for Crouching Tiger and Steven Soderbergh nabbed the Oscar for Traffic, way back in 2001). Still, rules are meant to be broken and statistics are meant to be diverged from, so I'm betting on Linklater squeaking by.
We can safely rule out Selma (nominated for next to nothing), American Sniper (too controversial), Whiplash (too small) and The Theory of Everything (getting more praise for the actors than anything else). Harvey Weinstein's campaign for The Imitation Game has been pretty gross, with the whole "Honor the Man, Honor the Film" horseshit, and I'm hoping that it rubbed enough people the wrong way; plus, The Imitation Game isn't favored to win any other major awards, so it'd be a weird Chariots of Fire-style split if it won. The Grand Budapest Hotel is tied with Birdman for the most nominations, so they clearly like it, but I can't really conceive it winning the top prize (much as I'd like it to). It's between Boyhood and Birdman, and while I've been going back and forth, I'm going to put money down on Oscar voters picking the latter for insisting that what they do is the most important thing in the world. I'll have to remind myself that I actually like Birdman just fine when it picks up the top prize that I think The Grand Budapest Hotel, Boyhood, Selma and Whiplash all deserve more. In the words of William Munny in Unforgiven, "Deserve's got nothin' to do with it."